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The Cardinals 2020 Draft will go down as one of the Best in MLB History

The 2020 Cardinals draft was one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. With some players soaring through the top 100 lists as they develop, and some just emerging as high-ceiling prospect candidates, this draft will go down in the history books. With a shortened draft due to COVID-19, the Cardinals selected 7 players in total. Here’s who Randy Flores and the Cardinals picked up:

First Round: 3B Jordan Walker (No. 21 overall)

Second Round: RHP/SS Masyn Winn (No. 54 overall)

Competitive Balance Round B: RHP Tink Hence (No. 63 overall)

Round 2C: OF Alec Burleson (No. 70 overall)

Third Round: LHP Levi Prater (No. 93 overall)

Fourth Round: RHP Ian Bedell (No. 122 overall)

Fifth Round: OF LJ Jones IV (No. 152 overall)

In this article, I’ll be giving my opinion as well as displaying some numbers for all 7 guys the Cardinals drafted. First, I’ll separate the 7 into 3 different categories so we can get a better feel for who we’re talking about.

Jordan Walker is definitely the best Cardinals prospect right now. Jordan has a 145 wRC+ in 527 MiLB PA across 2021 and 2022 in A, A+, and AA. Oh yeah, he also just turned 20 on May 22nd. Displaying some of the best raw and game power the Cardinals have seen in their system for years, Jordan Walker has caught the eyes of most of professional baseball. With almost every prospect list having him in the top 20 or 25, he’s just getting better. At 18 years old, he posted a 116.2 MPH Max EV. For reference, here are the only major league players with a Max EV above 116.2 MPH in 2022:

Some of the best and most popular hitters are on that list. That is just a glimpse of the talent that Walker possesses. Walker had a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity at single A, to compliment his 205 wRC+ and .303 ISO.

When he was promoted to A+, his wRC+ fell from 205 to 124 where his average exit velocity was ONLY 91.0 MPH. That’d be in the 82nd percentile this season. Here are Jordan Walker’s stats this season, through 183 PA and 40 games at AA Springfield:

Although he’s seen some issues with hitting the ball in the air more often than on the ground, he is pulling the ball more than ever and has increased his Pull% at each level he’s gotten to. His LD% has also increased in every season he’s played, more improvement in another category. Some might see his 2021 BABIP of .394 as a cause for concern, but it’s not much to look at. When you hit the ball as hard as Jordan Walker does, you’ll find yourself having a high batting average on contact and on balls in play. He’s also posted a pop-up rate below 4% at all 3 levels he’s played at, which contributes to the high BABIP. The more BIP that are outs, the lower the BABIP (obviously). So of course, having less pop-ups (which are guaranteed outs) will result in less outs on balls in play, which means his BABIP will never really drop too far down. BABIP needs to be contextualized if it wants to be meaningful, and Walker is one of the players where BABIP can be misleading if you don’t recognize why it’s such a high number for him. Once he starts to hit more flyballs, it’s over. His increasing Pull% and insane EV skills combined with some flyballs sprinkled in a bit more often will create a monster that Jordan Walker has already showed signs of becoming. He’s not much defensively, but It’s not that big of a deal with the bat he has. He looks like he’ll be a corner INF/OF in his MLB career. Even with crazy power tools, Walker still had a 50 contact grade. Remember he’s doing this at (barely) 20 year old. Jordan Walker and Cade Cavalli (WSH) have proven themselves to be the two steals of the first round, coming in at picks #21 and #22. Walker, selected 21st overall, is showing more and more positive signs as the weeks go on and is proving himself to be a top 10 prospect and potential perennial All-Star in the majors.

2. Masyn Winn SS

Masyn Winn is unbelievably underrated. MLB Pipeline left him out of the top 100, which is a huge mistake. Drafted as a shortstop and pitcher, Winn clearly has that dog in him. Although he only pitched 1 inning and it was with Peoria in 2021, he was topping out at 98 MPH on his fastball and dropping down to 78 on the CB. Winn is not going to pitch this year, but that is perfectly fine. I’ll talk about his offense later, but his defense paired with his crazy arm at SS creates one of the best defensive players in the minor leagues. Here’s a little bit on Masyn Winn’s generational arm strength from SS:

Here is a list of every throw of 92 mph or higher on an out recorded in the infield in 2021 in the MLB:

And here is a list of every 92 mph or harder throw that Masyn Winn has recorded on an infield out in 2021:

I mean just look at some of these plays and throws by Masyn Winn. I do think the term “generational” is a bit overused and thrown around too much, but I truly believe Winn is a generational defensive talent when you take his glove, range, and arm into account. Defense is just 1 of 3 stellar aspects of Winn’s game. Now, let’s talk about his speed.

Masyn Winn’s speed is also something that should be acknowledged when evaluating his skillset. Winn has already stolen 16 bases this season through his first 39 games. That’s on pace for about 61 stolen bags over a 150 game sample, which is just insane. In 135 professional games, he’s swiped 48 bags and even has 12 triples and already 7 this season. Fangraphs gave him a 60 speed grade, which is really good. Winn is an amazing athlete and his speed will help him on both sides of the ball. Now let’s go over Winn’s offense.

Masyn Winn showed positive signs at the plate in his rookie season at A ball with Palm Beach, posting a 112 wRC+ and promising plate discipline tools. A cause for concern came from his .388 SLG and 40.0 GB%, but he still had a mere 40% FB%. Winn also had a 40.9 Pull% which is just about league average in MLB this season. Masyn Winn’s Contact, Max EV, and Chase% grades from P-Live were all 50 on the 20–80 scale. Nothing too special, but remember he was 19 years old hitting average/above average with amazing defense at the time.

A good rookie season from Winn triggered a promotion, where he took 154 PA at A+ Peoria to finish his 2021 season. He was terrible. He slashed just .209/.240/.304 with a 48 wRC+, and also dropping almost all of the plate discipline skills reflected by his BB% and Chase%. This season though, has been entirely a different story. After completely dropping his pitching career, Winn has gone off at the plate. Here are his numbers through 172 PA this season at A+ and AA:

This is really impressive by Masyn Winn. Hitting more flyballs, more line drives, pulling the ball more, hitting for much more power, just a really complete offensive player right now. He’s even walking at an above average clip and striking out less than 20% of the time which is super impressive for a 20 year old. While a 160 wRC+ is obviously not sustainable for Winn because of the high BABIP and still generally low LD%, this is really good improvement for Masyn. With his speed, he’ll be able to take tons of extra bases and beat out some infield hits every now and then. He’s a 5' 11", 180 lb, 20 year old so of course the raw power won’t really translate to game power until he gets into his physical prime, and that’s okay. The fact that he’s even showing signs of power this early is really incredible. His 110 MPH Max EV as a 19 year old would be in the 71st percentile in MLB. That’s more than serviceable. I think Masyn Winn will be a 115/120 wRC+ shortstop with 10 DRS in his prime years, at the least. I mean a gold glove caliber shortstop with well above league average offense and 20 stolen bases is definitely a successful draft pick in my opinion. There were 8 SS picked before Winn in the draft, 3 of which are yet to hit AA. Austin Martin of the Twins (Drafted by TOR), was the first SS picked in the draft and has a wRC+ of just 2 points higher than Winn since August 1st of 2021. Masyn Winn is my favorite Cardinals prospect, and he should be yours too.

3. Alec Burleson OF

Alec Burleson is a really solid young prospect in the Cardinals system. Burly is one of my favorite prospects in the Cardinals’ system that should be talked about more. He may not be a top 100 prospect, but he definitely has the talent to become an MLB starter and even beyond some day. In 160 games in the minors, Burly has posted a 121 wRC+ with decent plate discipline and has shown off some power. My favorite Alec Burleson stat is that he got a base hit off of both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in the same spring training game in 2022. Only 13 players had gotten a hit off of both deGrom and Scherzer at any point in the 2021 season, and he did it in one game. Alec has soared through each level of the minors, having already played in 76 career AAA games. Remember he was part of the 2020 draft. Here are Burleson’s numbers from his first year in pro ball, where he played in A+, AA, and AAA:

Burleson showed off some power at A+, with a .310 ISO before being quickly promoted to AA after only taking 49 PA down in Peoria.

In AA, he had a 116 wRC+ before being moved to AAA where he took his final 170 PA of the 2021 season. He had a .667 OPS and 81 wRC+, not great. Similar to Gorman though, things changed the second time around. Burleson has posted a wRC+ at 148 and his ISO has increased by more than .100 points from his 2021 AAA stint compared to 2022. He’s walking almost 4% less, but his FB% is the highest It’s been since his monster rookie month at A+ Peoria. Here are his numbers so far this season through 175 PA in AAA Memphis:

Another thing I love about Burleson is he had a 70 Max EV grade last year, which would estimate to about 114 MPH based on other MiLBers who shared a 70 Max EV grade and have available data that show their actual Max EV in MPH.

Burleson’s plate discipline does need work though, however. Reflected by a 45 Chase% and BB% grade, Alec does not shine in that category. On the bright side, Burleson’s contact% has increased in each level he’s played in, with a 76.2% contact% in AAA which is just above the MLB league average this season. I think Burleson is really similar to Lars Nootbaar, a left-handed corner OF in the Cardinals system who is currently floating around between AAA and the MLB. Both of them have really good raw power, similar contact, and similar plate discipline. I think the deciding factor between who will get more playing time or who will get traded of the 2 (if at all) comes down to who can translate the raw power into game power in the MLB. Burleson’s average LA is more than 20° higher than Nootbaar’s in AAA this season, so that’s a good start for Alec. I think Burleson could hover around a 120 or even a 125 wRC+ during his prime, with 20/25 homers. Burly Barrels is a solid prospect to have in your farm, and he will most likely have an impact on the MLB roster at some point in his career.

4. Tink Hence RHP

Delivery & Mechanics: Clean and easy operation overall, athleticism stands out, moves freely and efficiently down the slope with good direction in lower half and plus arm action. Whip to arm stroke with plus arm speed, that paired with physical projection give him long term upside, starter traits overall in terms of operation.

Fastball: Works in the 90–95 mph range now with velocity tapering off in later innings of starts, physical projection and arm speed give this pitch particularly high ceiling, easy out of hand with good metrics and carry through the zone, plus future as a starter. Grade: 60

Curveball: Thrown mostly in the upper-70’s, good tunnel off of fastball, stays on top of pitch well and generates 11/5 shape, thrown with conviction and plus bite at times, some inconsistencies to shape and release at times, easy to project plus long term here. Grade: 60

Changeup: Third pitch at present, used more sparingly as an amateur, thrown a tick or two to either side of 80 mph, arm action and athleticism allows to project on this pitch in particular, has feel for turning pitch over, has ceiling of solid-average pitch, longer ways to go with this one. Grade: 45

Control and Command: Ease of operation and athleticism overall allows for him to pound the strike zone, ceiling of plus command here given youth and present traits. Long term may fall shy of plus command, will always be a strike-thrower and has the command components to project out as a starter. Control: 60 | Command: 55

Overall: Lean-bodied, young, projectable right-handed starter with flashes of plus fastball, plus curveball, and command. Body needs to mature and strength needs to be added along with the usual refinements to profile needed. Lack of present physical durability and 3rd pitch limit ceiling a bit, but the upside here remains high.

Hence is a hard throwing righty with some good breaking stuff, and he’s got lots of potential. Here are Hence’s basic numbers through his first 6.0 IP this season at Low A:

Now since it’s only 6 innings, we need to look more at individual pitch data to get a better feel for his stuff. While the stats are sharp, a small sample really doesn’t matter too much for those peripherals.

Tink Hence has some amazing stuff here. I mean the PitchingBot average grade of 50 is relative to MLB pitchers, so that’s just a testament to how good his fastball is. Tink Hence is 20 years old and would literally have an elite fastball in MLB right now.

Tink is really impressive and will be a top pitching prospect soon. His elite fastball and changeup paired with an above average sinker and curveball make for an amazing arsenal for Hence. I’m just so in love with this pick by Randy Flores, and the Cardinals are doing a much better job in drafting pitchers now than they have been in recent years.

5. Levi Prater LHP

Ok I will admit this is where it starts to get less fun, but these 3 guys still have got some depth potential. Prater being my favorite of the 3 guys in “Tier 3”, he is a lefty with decent K stuff. I mean he’s been really bad so far through his first 80.0 MiLB innings, but there are places to improve. His 20.4 BB% in his pro career so far really stings. Like that is unacceptable. He was a later round pick so it really isn’t too overwhelming, and he still has a 28.6 K% in his career so far. One good thing about Prater’s game was his average exit velocity against last season was only 86.4 MPH. That would be in the 87th percentile in MLB for this season. In his last 3 games, Levi has surrendered just 1 ER and has only walked batters 4% of the time. Prater could be a solid piece in the Cardinals system, but there is some work to be done.

6. Ian Bedell RHP

Ian Bedell has a really interesting case, and it’s hard to analyze. Bedell only threw 2.2 MiLB innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery so I’ll have to look at his college numbers which the Cardinals used to draft him. Bedell had a 0.59 ERA in a collegiate summer league in 2019, posting a 0.62 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 in 30.1 IP. He also didn’t allow a homerun in those 30 innings he pitched, while also only walking less than 1 batter per 9 innings. In 2020, Bedell posted a 3.70 ERA at Mizzou through 24.1 innings. Ian Bedell found himself walking more batters and allowing more homeruns, but he also struck out more batters posting a 12.9 K/9. Bedell is rehabbing at extended spring training right now, so he could be back with Low A Peoria in the next couple of weeks which is a really good sign for Bedell. It’s tough to analyze how Bedell will look coming back from Tommy John, but the 22 year old has some nice stuff and should be back soon.

7. L.J. Jones OF

Last but not least, we have L.J. Jones, a 22 year old outfielder from Long Beach State. Jones has an interesting offensive profile, and has already taken more than 450 PA in his MiLB career so far. While he’s only posted an 85 wRC+ in his career so far, Jones just recently hit a new career max EV of 111 MPH. That would be in the 68th percentile in MLB this year, not bad. Jones has also seen a significant increase in flyballs, as his FB% has jumped from 28.7% in Low A in 2021 to over 56% this season in A+. Jones only had an 84 wRC+ last season in 360 PA at Low A, but finished the season strong with a 126 wRC+ in his last 20 games. In his 8 most recent games this season, Jones has a 121 wRC+ so he could be getting hot again. Jones looks like a depth piece right now, but a 111 MPH Max EV for your possible worst player from the draft doesn’t look too bad at all.

That just about does it for this draft recap. I appreciate all of you who read all the way through this article, it means a lot and it was really fun to write.

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