Arizona Cardinals 2020 Preview

Can Kyler lead Arizona back to the playoffs in year 2?

Drafting 2018 Heisman Trophy winner QB Kyler Murray with the first overall pick a year ago, the Arizona Cardinals showcased a drastically improved team in 2019 on their way to a 5–10–1 record. With second-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury calling plays, Arizona ran ’10 personnel’, or four WR sets, at a rate nearly 4x higher than the next closest team. The biggest benefit of these spread formations that are more traditional in college football, was the boost it provided to the Cardinals’ rushing efficiency which notched the 2nd most yards per rush attempt in 2019. Operating out of 10 personnel also requires strong depth at the WR position, and Arizona was able to massively improve the receiver room by trading for four-time All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins.

Improvement should also be expected from a defense that gave up over 400 yards per game last year after the 1st-round selection of hybrid safety Isaiah Simmons, an extraordinary athlete who Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked as the seventh-best overall player in the draft. Arizona is expected to take another step forward in 2020, and while playoff aspirations may not come to fruition in a tough-to-win NFC West, the overall youth and potential on this team will make the Cardinals a very fun franchise to keep an eye on.

QB Kyler Murray is currently the fourth QB coming off the board in fantasy drafts after finishing 2019 as the 7th best fantasy player at the position. Murray was arguably 2019’s second most valuable running QB, ranking behind only Lamar Jackson in yards per attempt, runs of 10+ yards and designed rush yards according to PFF. With Arizona utilizing an up-tempo scheme that averaged the fourth fewest seconds per play last year according to sharpfootballstats.com, defenses will struggle to keep up.

Kenyan Drake will start at RB, and he may be the most valuable fantasy player in the entire offense. Drake has historically excelled when given the opportunity, with an impressive career average of 4.9 yards per carry. In the four 2019 contests where drake was given at least 15 carries, he scored 25.3 PPR points per game. Drake doesn’t offer the typical 250+ carry projection we like to see in 1st-round fantasy RBs, but his involvement in the passing game more than makes up for it. If fantasy drafters can scoop up Drake in round 2, it’ll be nothing short of a steal.

Arizona will be trotting out a deep group of WRs in 2020 headlined by DeAndre Hopkins, who was recently acquired from the Texans via trade. Hopkins was a PPR monster in Houston, with a 16.5 career points per game average. The 28 year-old should immediately command the highest target share in Arizona, likely detracting from the fantasy outputs of third-year WR Christian Kirk and 37 year-old WR Larry Fitzgerald. Hopkins will be a top-10 fantasy WR, but with his true role in the offense still unknown, his current 1st-round ADP is too expensive to recommend him as a player who is likely to exceed their draft value.

Christian Kirk led Arizona with a 23% target share in 2019, and while the presence of Hopkins will cause that perecentage to lessen, the 23 year-old Kirk has flashed major fantasy upside. With Hopkins drawing the eyes of the defense, the quality of targets Kirk sees this season will certainly improve which should help the young WR boost his already respectable 2019 mark of 10.4 yards per reception. With a 37.8 point performance in week 10 last year, Kirk has already showcased just how high his fantasy ceiling could be, making him a compelling 10th-round selection.

Both FanDuel Sportsbook and the Fanvest model project an improved win total for the 2020 cardinals, but with both totals so close, there is minimal value to be found at the current odds.

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