How to convert a Binary IP to an IP address

The first row below represents the value for each byte, remember a byte is 8 bits. The second row in our example below represents the first part of our binary ip above. We will now do some awesome…

独家优惠奖金 100% 高达 1 BTC + 180 免费旋转

Where is Bitcoin in terms of Adoption

The framework

Everett Roger came up with a model to understand the spread of technology or innovations. He said that it follows a bell curve. He segmented the adopters in five groups, and gave us the distribution.

The five groups differ from each other in terms of their love of the technology. The groups differs in psychology as well. Innovators and early adopters are more flexible and are open to new ideas. Remember, it is quite possible that a person could be an innovator in one technology, but might fall under late majority in another category. So, don’t be critical of ‘early majority — Pragmatists‘ or ‘Late majority — Conservatives’.

There are a couple of folks who have plotted adoption curve with market sentiment cycle. Since market sentiment cycle or hype cycle is getting shared a lot in social media, it makes sense to look at it once. Please browse through my piece on market cycle here if you trying to understand the 2018Q1 slump through market sentiment cycle.

Ok, now getting back to the topic which is to get sense of where is Bitcoin in the diffusion curve.

Where Bitcoin as a technology stands in the curve

We need two data points, ‘size of target population’ and ‘size of adopter’ to understand it

a) Target Population — the area under the normal curve. Is it the USA population or folks with internet or mobile access in the USA or folks with Banking access.

b) Adopters of technology — This would give us the sense on where we stand on the bell curve plotted by target population.

Bitcoin is a complex product, and depending on how do we define it (Store of Value (SoV) or Medium of exchange (MoE)), the target population and adopter population would change. For simplicity purpose, I’ve summarized a couple of approaches below.

All the data is collected and/or derived from publicly available and reliable sources. You might have a lot of questions on around how do we calculate # of unique person with bitcoin. The numbers here are reasonable estimate based on data from difference sources and perspective.

Depending on the approach, the penetration moves from 3% to 10%. At any rate, we have moved past innovator phase. We are either in the early phases of ‘early adopters’ or are deep into it. Either we are close to the chasm or we are not very far from it in terms of months or years.

What is chasm and why do we care

A technology or a product must cross the chasm before mass adoption. Innovators and early adopters see the technology in terms of its potential. They see what is possible but often forget to see its current capabilities and usability. They lack pragmatism of early majority (Pragmatists). Early majority would accept a product once they see its usefulness. Once the product solves some real life pain point.

For MoE use case of Bitcoin, it would be the time when it would be easier enough to use bitcoin for day to day transaction. For platform like Ethereum, it would be the time we have a usable DApp product that solves real life problem.

For SoV use case of Bitcoin, It would the time when Bitcoin starts getting some love from regulators.

“I believe in blockchain but I am not sure about Bitcoin”. This comes from pragmatists who is convinced with the blockchain buzzword but not with Bitcoin ( the only killer app of blockchain that can disrupt money). They need more assurance.

Here is another pragmatists.

Highly educated, but cynical.

For mass adoption, bitcoin has to get these guys onboard. It is possible only with more love with regulators and/or big and smart money flowing into the system.

How to convert a Binary IP to an IP address

Where is Bitcoin in terms of Adoption

Add a comment

Related posts:

Why the token CRYO will always grow

Ripples

Marching With Atticus Finch