Keeping the Peace in the Donbas

What UN peacekeepers could mean for eastern Ukraine

Putin also noted “these forces should be located on the demarcation line only and on no other territories” and the conflict would not be resolved with additional security, but “only after disengaging the parties and removing the heavy equipment” which “cannot be resolved without direct contact with representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic.”

United States Special Representative to Ukraine Ambassador Kurt Volker sent his first two tweets from a new Twitter account in response to the Russian call for peacekeepers, showing some reservations of Russia’s implementation of the plan in the Donbas, but still “cautiously” welcoming the proposal.

As the OSCE SMM faces increased security threats and impediments, parties to the conflict have voiced concern and support for the mission. Russia is now citing these increasingly dangerous conditions as a reason for the UN peacekeeping mission.

Exactly how peacekeepers would be deployed to the Donbas is still undetermined, with Russia proposing them to be primarily focused on protecting the OSCE SMM on the demarcation line and Ukraine pushing for their presence in the entire non-government-controlled area.

A peacekeeping mission on the demarcation line would entail a significant operation, but exactly where these peacekeepers would be placed is a difficult problem to settle, with a fluid understanding of where the demarcation lies in eastern Ukraine.

Based on Putin’s statement and the information so far provided by the Russian government, it is still unclear where the “demarcation line” is. The lack of clarity from the Russian side is problematic — as seen in the map below, the current line of contact is significantly different than the demarcation line established by the Minsk Protocols and agreements in 2014-15.

In the eyes of Ukraine, Russian peacekeeping missions in Transnistria and South Ossetia/Abkhazia may be the worst case scenarios for the Donbas, as Russia was able to circumvent the international system to set the stage for indefinite occupation and “freezing” of hot conflict areas. However, with the more limited scope of the peacekeeping mission and the cooperation of Ukraine’s allies in the West, this scenario seems unlikely.

While the introduction of a UN peacekeeping mission may not bring substantive positive impact towards a resolution of the conflict, there are potential improvements that can be realized, such as fulfillment of the Minsk accords’ weapon withdrawal provisions, a reduction of risk and harassment targeting OSCE SMM officials, and a safer environment for civilians at checkpoints separating government and non-government-controlled areas in the Donbas.

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